Expected Premier League Table MD6: Arsenal's open-play boost, wayward Forest and can Brighton keep it up?
Using an expected-goals-based model, The Athletic projects how the Premier League table should look after six matchdays. Arsenal are shown to have generated significantly more open-play xG than their actual goals suggest, indicating potential for improvement. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, are flagged as overperforming their underlying numbers, while Brighton are questioned on whether their strong start is sustainable. The piece uses data analytics to separate luck from quality early in the season.
Read the full story at nytimes.comExpected-goals models offer a useful corrective to early-season noise, and this snapshot of Matchday 6 underlines three of the Premier League's most interesting storylines. Arsenal's underlying open-play numbers point to a side creating enough to climb the table once finishing converges, while Nottingham Forest's position looks increasingly reliant on hot finishing rather than chance quality. Brighton's strong start raises the perennial question of whether their model can sustain a top-half push over a full campaign.
Context added by Socc360, not by nytimes.com.
Data source: nytimes.com (via Socc360). Last updated .
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